Europe’s Geopolitical Dilemma: Navigating a Multipolar World

This article was originally published in Vol. 5 No. 3 of our print edition.

The geopolitical landscape of Europe has long been under the shadow of transatlantic relationships, particularly with the United States. Zbigniew Brzezinski aptly summarized this dynamic in The Grand Chessboard, pointing out that Western Europe functions as an American protectorate, a situation that remains largely unchanged nearly three decades later. This relationship raises fundamental questions about Europe’s future role within an evolving geopolitical order.

The Transatlantic Divide: USA vs. EU

Traditionally, the USA has functioned as a global power influencing geopolitics, while the EU focused on values such as democracy and human rights. However, as the 2025 deadline looms, Europe stands at the crossroads of a significant geopolitical awakening. With the rise of a multipolar world, has the time come for Europe to assume a more independent role? Can the EU create a meaningful foreign policy strategy that aligns with its values while also adapting to rigorous power politics?

Josep Borrell, the former EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, encapsulates this challenge. He notes that Europe was historically ill-equipped for the hard realities of global politics, especially when faced with significant threats such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This awakening has led to a radical reevaluation of Europe’s geopolitical stance, emphasizing the urgent necessity of self-reliance and assertive foreign policy.

Trump’s Administration: A Turn in the Tide

The inauguration of Donald Trump’s administration in January 2025 brought a fresh wave of skepticism toward Europe. The Vice President’s remarks at the Munich Security Conference reinforced concerns about the EU’s leadership. In this critical juncture, many experts argue that the transatlantic alliance may be reaching its breaking point, both politically and economically.

In April 2025, a stark trade announcement from the Trump administration sent shockwaves through Europe. A proposed 20% tariff on EU imports highlighted the precarious economic relationship between the US and Europe, emphasizing the risk that the EU may find itself on the losing end of power dynamics in a multipolar world.

Revisiting an Emerging Multipolar Order

The year 2025 signifies not just a change in administration but represents the starting point of a new historical chapter for Europe. With the fading unipolarity of American dominance, the global order is shifting, opening the door for new power dynamics. The complex interplay of global economic challenges, geopolitical competitions, and urgent threats compel Europe to reconsider its positioning on the world stage.

The tension between the "West" and the "Global South" is profound, shaped by differing perspectives on governance, sovereignty, and international cooperation. This multipolar world demands strategic foresight. For instance, the concept of "de-risking," championed by the Biden administration, seeks to eliminate economic dependencies on ‘unreliable’ countries. This strategy inevitably raises questions about how Europe will navigate its own relationships with the Global South as it attempts to assert its interests.

Mapping Europe’s Geopolitical Landscape

Geographically, Europe is a peninsula of the vast Eurasian landmass, a reality that complicates its geopolitical aspirations. The continent’s connections to Asia and Africa extend its influence beyond traditional comforts of the Atlantic alliance. European states have yet to fully leverage this crucial aspect of their geography to develop a compelling geopolitical narrative.

According to Halford Mackinder’s concept of the "World-Island," Europe serves as a pivotal point in this broader geopolitical game. As the world transitions into a more multipolar framework, the EU must grapple with complex realities: does it reinforce its ties to American interests, or does it embrace a more independent geographic and economic strategy?

The Dilemma of Economic Dependencies

While economic ties between Europe and the US have flourished under the umbrella of mutual values and cooperation, the current trade atmosphere suggests growing disparities. The EU’s approach to economic security has become increasingly reactive rather than proactive. The establishment of a framework aimed at enhancing economic security risks failing to provide the assertiveness needed to position Europe favorably in a reshaped global economy.

The levers of power in this emerging order are dictated not just by economic might but also by strategic partnerships. The EU’s relationships with Asia and Africa will be pivotal in determining its sovereignty as a political and economic actor.

Caught Between East and West

As Europe grapples with its newfound call for geopolitical independence, its leaders face intense pressure to balance internal unity with external expectations. Ursula von der Leyen’s vision for a geopolitical EU underscores the need for aligning the Union’s values with its interests. Yet, the question remains: can the EU truly position itself as a global geopolitical player without a robust military or security apparatus?

The Russia-Ukraine war and the overwhelming need to address European security highlight internal divisions among member states that undermine the EU’s collective stance on geopolitical matters.

Future Directions: Toward an Independent Europe

To create a sovereign and independent pole in this new multipolar world, Europe must embark on a fundamental geopolitical metamorphosis. This involves shifting from a purely value-based approach to one that acknowledges the realities of power politics.

1. Geopolitical Strategy Development: Individual nations must craft specific strategies that do not solely hinge on American alliances but take into account their geographical realities and the economic ascendance of Asia.

2. Engaging Emerging Markets: Europe should proactively establish partnerships with countries in the Global South, recognizing that new spheres of influence are emerging in Central, Eastern, and Southern Asia, as well as Africa.

3. Revised Integration Models: The EU must develop a more flexible model of integration that emphasizes competition and collaboration with Asian and African nations, positioning itself as a central force within the Eurasian landscape.

4. Political Neutrality vs. Power Dynamics: A stance of political neutrality may serve Europe better than entrenchment in American strategies, allowing for broader engagements.

By recalibrating its foundation, Europe can maintain its historical legacy of peace and prosperity while positioning itself for a future defined by vibrant economic and social landscapes on its own terms.

Translated by Thomas Sneddon